Sea ice assimilation into a coupled ocean–sea ice model using its adjoint

Satellite sea ice concentrations (SICs), together with several ocean parameters, are assimilated into a regional Arctic coupled ocean–sea ice model covering the period of 2000–2008 using the adjoint method. There is substantial improvement in the representation of the SIC spatial distribution, in particular with respect to the position of the ice edge and to the concentrations in the central parts of the Arctic Ocean during summer months. Seasonal cycles of total Arctic sea ice area show an overall improvement. During summer months, values of sea ice extent (SIE) integrated over the model domain become underestimated compared to observations, but absolute differences of mean SIE to the data are reduced in nearly all months and years. Along with the SICs, the sea ice thickness fields also become closer to observations, providing added value by the assimilation. Very sparse ocean data in the Arctic, corresponding to a very small contribution to the cost function, prevent sizable improvements of assimilated ocean variables, with the exception of the sea surface temperature

From Cancer to Immune-Mediated Diseases and Tolerance Induction: Lessons Learned From Immune Oncology and Classical Anti-cancer Treatment

Success in cancer treatment over the last four decades has ranged from improvements in classical drug therapy to immune oncology. Anti-cancer drugs have also often proven beneficial for the treatment of inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. In this review, we report on challenging examples that bridge between treatment of cancer and immune-mediated diseases, addressing mechanisms and experimental models as well as clinical investigations. Patient-derived tumor xenograft (PDX) (humanized) mouse models represent useful tools for preclinical evaluation of new therapies and biomarker identification. However, new developments using human ex vivo approaches modeling cancer, for example in microfluidic human organs-on-chips, promise to identify key molecular, cellular and immunological features of human cancer progression in a fully human setting. Classical drugs which bridge the gap, for instance, include cytotoxic drugs, proteasome inhibitors, PI3K/mTOR inhibitors and metabolic inhibitors. Biologicals developed for cancer therapy have also shown efficacy in the treatment of autoimmune diseases. In immune oncology, redirected chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cells have achieved spectacular remissions in refractory B cell leukemia and lymphoma and are currently under development for tolerance induction using cell-based therapies such as CAR Tregs or NK cells. Finally, a brief outline will be given of the lessons learned from bridging cancer and autoimmune diseases as well as tolerance induction

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (zeta) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a zeta projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of zeta change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and zeta. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the zeta change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic zeta change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.Peer reviewe

Testing variational estimation of process parameters and initial conditions of an earth system model

We present a variational assimilation system around a coarse resolution Earth System Model (ESM) and apply it for estimating initial conditions and parameters of the model. The system is based on derivative information that is efficiently provided by the ESM's adjoint, which has been generated through automatic differentiation of the model's source code. In our variational approach, the length of the feasible assimilation window is limited by the size of the domain in control space over which the approximation by the derivative is valid. This validity domain is reduced by non-smooth process representations. We show that in this respect the ocean component is less critical than the atmospheric component. We demonstrate how the feasible assimilation window can be extended to several weeks by modifying the implementation of specific process representations and by switching off processes such as precipitation

Variational assimilation of SSH variability from TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERSI into an eddy-permitting model of the North Atlantic

A first step for improving the climatological state of high‐resolution general circulation models by means of data assimilation is presented. A method developed for the assimilation of statistical characteristics into chaotic ocean models is applied to assimilate SSH variability from TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS1 in association with temperature and salinity from the World Ocean Atlas 1997 in order to estimate the underlying mean circulation. The method requires a parameterization of SSH variability which derives from the approach of Green and Stone. By estimating initial conditions for temperature and salinity, a mean state is achieved which, although not fully consistent with the altimetric and climatological data, is markedly improved on time scales of one year in comparison to the control run. The assimilation of SSH variability data introduces complementary information about the main frontal structures consistent with climatological observations. The state is however not an equilibrium state and returns back to the first guess quasi‐equilibrium state for longer integration periods

MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction

A German national project coordinates research on improving a global decadal climate prediction system for future operational use. MiKlip, an eight-year German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the climate model MPI-ESM together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that targets future operational use. Three prediction-system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multi-year-mean European summer surface temperatures, extra-tropical cyclone tracks, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind-energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption. MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction-system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization. Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of two to three years

Low Energy Electron Irradiation Is a Potent Alternative to Gamma Irradiation for the Inactivation of (CAR-)NK-92 Cells in ATMP Manufacturing

Background: With increasing clinical use of NK-92 cells and their CAR-modified derivatives in cancer immunotherapy, there is a growing demand for efficient production processes of these “off-the-shelf” therapeutics. In order to ensure safety and prevent the occurrence of secondary tumors, (CAR-)NK-92 cell proliferation has to be inactivated before transfusion. This is commonly achieved by gamma irradiation. Recently, we showed proof of concept that low energy electron irradiation (LEEI) is a new method for NK-92 inactivation. LEEI has several advantages over gamma irradiation, including a faster reaction time, a more reproducible dose rate and much less requirements on radiation shielding. Here, LEEI was further evaluated as a promising alternative to gamma irradiation yielding cells with highly maintained cytotoxic effector function. Methods: Effectiveness and efficiency of LEEI and gamma irradiation were analyzed using NK-92 and CD123-directed CAR-NK-92 cells. LEE-irradiated cells were extensively characterized and compared to gamma-irradiated cells via flow cytometry, cytotoxicity assays, and comet assays, amongst others. Results: Our results show that both irradiation methods caused a progressive decrease in cell viability and are, therefore, suitable for inhibition of cell proliferation. Notably, the NKmediated specific lysis of tumor cells was maintained at stable levels for three days postirradiation, with a trend towards higher activities after LEEI treatment as compared to gamma irradiation. Both gamma irradiation as well as LEEI led to substantial DNA damage and an accumulation of irradiated cells in the G2/M cell cycle phases. In addition, transcriptomic analysis of irradiated cells revealed approximately 12-fold more differentially expressed genes two hours after gamma irradiation, compared to LEEI. Analysis of surface molecules revealed an irradiation-induced decrease in surface expression of CD56, but no changes in the levels of the activating receptors NKp46, NKG2D, or NKp30. Conclusions: The presented data show that LEEI inactivates (CAR-)NK-92 cells as efficiently as gamma irradiation, but with less impact on the overall gene expression. Due to logistic advantages, LEEI might provide a superior alternative for the manufacture of (CAR-)NK-92 cells for clinical application

Measuring global ocean heat content to estimate the earth energy imbalance

The energy radiated by the Earth toward space does not compensate the incoming radiation from the Sun leading to a small positive energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (0.4–1 Wm–2). This imbalance is coined Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI). It is mostly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and is driving the current warming of the planet. Precise monitoring of EEI is critical to assess the current status of climate change and the future evolution of climate. But the monitoring of EEI is challenging as EEI is two orders of magnitude smaller than the radiation fluxes in and out of the Earth system. Over 93% of the excess energy that is gained by the Earth in response to the positive EEI accumulates into the ocean in the form of heat. This accumulation of heat can be tracked with the ocean observing system such that today, the monitoring of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) and its long-term change provide the most efficient approach to estimate EEI. In this community paper we review the current four state-of-the-art methods to estimate global OHC changes and evaluate their relevance to derive EEI estimates on different time scales. These four methods make use of: (1) direct observations of in situ temperature; (2) satellite-based measurements of the ocean surface net heat fluxes; (3) satellite-based estimates of the thermal expansion of the ocean and (4) ocean reanalyses that assimilate observations from both satellite and in situ instruments. For each method we review the potential and the uncertainty of the method to estimate global OHC changes. We also analyze gaps in the current capability of each method and identify ways of progress for the future to fulfill the requirements of EEI monitoring. Achieving the observation of EEI with sufficient accuracy will depend on merging the remote sensing techniques with in situ measurements of key variables as an integral part of the Ocean Observing System